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Key points
- Support in NSW has increased to 48 per cent over the past month, but the move has not been strong enough to drive the state into the Yes camp.
- The Yes campaign regards the state as vital to victory because it faces large No votes in Queensland and WA.
- Voters in Sydney’s inner suburbs strongly support the Voice, but the mood is starkly different in other parts of the state.
A narrow majority of NSW voters have confirmed their rejection of the Indigenous Voice despite a late rebound in the state’s support for the proposal.
Backing for the Voice has increased to 48 per cent over the past month across NSW after sinking as low as 44 per cent in August and September. But the move has not been strong enough to drive the state into the Yes camp, with 52 per cent of voters saying they oppose the change.
The exclusive findings in the Resolve Political Monitor show the tightening of the NSW contest when the Yes campaign regards the state as vital to victory because it faces large No votes in Queensland and Western Australia.
Voters in Sydney’s inner suburbs strongly support the Voice, with 59 per cent in favour and 41 per cent against on a “yes or no” question akin to the referendum, but the mood is starkly different in other parts of the state.
Voters in outer suburbs are 54 per cent against the proposal and regional voters are 63 per cent against the change.
Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed noted the difference between the Yes and No results in NSW was within the margin of error for the survey.
“The vote in NSW is currently quite close and the state is one of four that Yes must win, which means it will be a swing state to watch on Saturday night,” he said.
“The Yes vote has dropped 17 percentage points in NSW in the last year but has come back in the last month.
“More progressive voters are siding with Yes in NSW but everyone else is leaning No – such as those aged 55 and over, those in regional areas, the Coalition and minor party voters.”
Labor voters in NSW are 70 per cent in favour of the Voice, slightly higher than the 67 per cent result in this survey nationwide.
Premier Chris Minns joined other state leaders last Friday to reaffirm their support for the Voice at a public event in Adelaide attended by Labor counterparts including new Victorian Premier Jacinta Allen, West Australian Premier Roger Cook and South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas.
The Voice is backed by 80 per cent of Greens voters in NSW, the same as the national result, despite the division on the question among the party’s membership and some of its state MPs.
While Greens NSW senator David Shoebridge has been one of the most vocal supporters of the Voice, and NSW MP Cate Faerhmann has been active in volunteering for the Yes campaign, others appear to be lukewarm in their support.
Jenny Leong, the Greens’ state MP for Newtown, has not issued a statement of support for the Voice on her website, although she has published information about the referendum, and has not posted about the Voice over the past month on X (previously Twitter).
While NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman declared his support for the Voice in early August, the new survey shows that Coalition voters are some of the strongest opponents of the change, with 78 per cent against.
“My view is that this is an enhancement of liberal democracy. This doesn’t detract from liberal democracy,” Speakman said in August.
Only 22 per cent of Coalition voters back that view in the latest survey.
The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 4728 eligible voters nationwide between September 22 and October 4 using the full wording of the proposed change to the Constitution in the referendum bill passed by parliament in June as well as the exact wording of the question being put to voters on official ballot papers.
Premier Chris Minns (second from left) joined other state leaders last Friday to reaffirm their support for the Voice.Credit: Ben Searcy
The NSW results are based on responses from 1079 people across the state.
Support for the Voice has fallen steadily in NSW at the same time it has declined nationwide, with 65 per cent of the state’s voters backing the proposal in August and September last year, when the Resolve Political Monitor combined two monthly surveys to track state trends.
The support in NSW fell to 58 per cent in a survey conducted in December and January, fell again to 53 per cent in May and June and slumped to 44 per cent in the August and September results published last month.
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